Cotton
Cotton futures have fallen to their lowest levels of the summer in recent trading. December has both technical and psychological resistance between 80 and 81 cents, but is building some resistance around 84 cents. Fifty-one percent of cotton acres in Texas and 33 percent of acres nation-wide are rated poor or very poor at this point, which could lead to higher than average abandonment. USDA is currently forecasting an increase in yield, however, of 911 pounds per acre across all cotton acres, with 10.139 million acres harvested, for total production of 19.235 million bales. Export sales for the current marketing year are up 36 percent from a year ago, which is providing some support.

Cotton farmers and other farmers with generic base should be considering their generic base reallocation and election of PLC or ARC for seed cotton. Texas A&M University has developed an online tool to help farmers with generic base make the best decisions for their individual farms, available here: https://www.afpc.tamu.edu/tools/cotton-base

Rice
The August USDA Crop Production Report, the first survey-based report for the 2018 crop, projects production to be up 18 percent from a year ago. Harvested acres of 2.803 million acres are projected to yield 7,523 pounds per acre, for a total production of 210.861 million hundredweight. Harvest is 15 percent complete across the U.S., but just kicking off in Arkansas. The August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report shows U.S. ending stocks forecast to climb from 34.8 million cwt for the 2017-18 marketing year to 43.6 million for the 2018-19 marketing year. That is due mostly to the larger crop, as exports are expected to be 98 million cwt, up from 86.5 million during 2017-18. The average on-farm price is forecast to be $11.40-$12.40/cwt. November futures have been volatile, taking nearly $2 off the market since Aug. 1, but are holding above support near $10. Resistance is building between $10.80-$10.90.

Soybeans
Despite a slight decline in acreage, soybean production is expected to top 2017 thanks to a 2.5 bushel/acre increase in average yield. U.S. farmers are now forecast to harvest 4.586 billion bushels of soybeans. Futures have shown signs of bottoming and have been trending higher after finding support just above $8.26. The steep uptrend has flattened during the past week after the market plunged 50 cents Aug. 10 in reaction to the production report. The latest WASDE report shows an increase in domestic use over the previous market year and a slight decline in exports. The average farm price for the 2018 crop is forecast to be $7.65-$10.15.

Corn
Corn futures have so far been unable to recover from the losses charted on Aug. 10 in reaction to the production report, but have seen support from better demand, both domestically and on the export market. An average yield of 178.4 bushels per acre harvested from 81.77 million acres is forecast — resulting in a crop of 14.586 billion bushels. December has found support at $3.65 for the time being. The market has received some support from better demand, both domestically and on the export front. The latest WASDE shows ending stocks down from the 2017-18 marketing year, but up from the July projection at 1.684 billion bushels. The average farm price estimate has dropped 20 cents on either end to $3.10-$4.10.

Dairy
Starting Oct. 8, dairy farmers can purchase Dairy Revenue Protection, a new crop insurance product developed by American Farm Bureau Federation and American Farm Bureau Insurance Services. The product provides insurance for the difference between the revenue guarantee and actual milk revenue if prices or revenues decline. It also provides a greater choice of price risk management features, providing the ability to protect the value of milk based on the value of cheese to fresh milk, protein or butterfat. Farmers can purchase Dairy Revenue Protection through an agent selling on behalf of an approved insurance provider.

Also, dairy farmers who haven’t yet enrolled in MPP can use USDA’s online decision tool to help them with potential enrollment decisions. Visit bit.ly/USDAdairyprograms for more information.