FCStone Offers Free Marketing Webinar to Farm Bureau Members
Join our Member Benefits partner, INTL FCStone, on April 21st for a free Market Outlook + Crop Marketing Educational Webinar featuring Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman. This is an excellent opportunity for you to sample market expertise, learn about risk management tools and start thinking more strategically about crop marketing before the planting season begins.

Details & line up:

Crop Marketing in Uncertain Times – Market Outlook and Educational Webinar
Tuesday, April 21st
11am-12pm CDT

• · Market Outlook on Corn, Wheat & Soybeans Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist, INTL FCStone Financial Inc., FCM Division
• · Tools to Protect Your Margins in Uncertain Times Rich Jelinek, Vice President, Global Education, INTL FCStone Financial Inc., FCM Division Matt Snell, Senior Risk Manager, INTL FCStone Financial Inc., FCM Division
• · Member Benefits Discounts on Risk Management Tools Cassie Adolf, Director-Business Development, INTL FCStone Financial Inc., FCM Division

Register here: https://ifcs.co/FBwebinar

More information on the benefits program: FB.org/FCStone

Dairy
Restaurant and school closures nationwide have resulted in sharp declines in dairy prices. Class III milk prices have fallen 28% and are now trading in the $12.50/cwt range. Class IV milk prices have declined a whopping 34% and are now trading below $12/cwt. Dairy processers are now calling for the dumping of milk as they struggle to find a market for our current levels of production.

Cattle
Cattle futures have declined more than 30% since mid-January, but prices are attempting to stabilize and recover. Live futures are finding support from their discount to cash and stronger wholesale beef prices. Feeders are seeing some support from expectations for government aid to livestock producers. October live futures are testing resistance at $97.50. A close above that level would signal a possible retest of resistance at $100. October feeders are testing resistance in the $130 range.

Hogs
Hog futures charted dramatic losses over the past month, gapping lower several days in a row, futures have lost 40% of their value since mid-January. Plant closures due to Covid-19 have reduced demand for hogs, and cash carcass values continue to decline as a result. The composite pork cutout value, however, continues to climb and bring packer margins with them. June should have support at this week’s low of $41.50. December charted a bearish key reversal today, suggesting another leg down is coming, with a possible retest of the $47.25 contract low.

Corn
Corn futures remain under pressure. USDA prospective plantings report estimated 2020 acreage up 8% from last year at 97 million acres. Ethanol stocks are now at a record high of 25.7 million barrels, and production facilities are reportedly shutting down. The latest USDA supply/demand report made adjustments in usage numbers that resulted in a 200 million bushel increase in ending stocks. The average on-farm price was lowered to $3.60/bushel. Futures continue to set a new low on an almost daily basis. There is little support for nearby May before we reach the 2016 low of $3.01.

Soybeans
The 2020 soybean crop is pegged at up 10% from a year ago at 83.5 million acres. Arkansas farmers reported they intend to plant 2.9 million acres, up 9%. These numbers are not a total shock to the market, but the potential for a huge crop is certainly bearish for prices. Weekly exports were well below market expectations and are now 14.9% below the year-to-date total. The latest USDA supply/demand report forecasts a 1.5% increase in exports, suggesting additional revisions in the report will be necessary. Currently, UDSA is projecting an on-farm season average price of $8.68. Both July and November have very tough resistance at the chart gap at $9, and really no obvious support above the recent contract low, which is $8.30 for July and $8.36 for November.

Rice
Rice, as a staple food crop around the world, has not seen the same pressure as other commodities. USDA has pegged rice acres at 2.847 million acres, up 12% from a year ago. For Arkansas, that total was 1.19 million acres of long grain and 206,000 acres of medium/short grain, for a total acreage of 1.396 million, up 21% from last year. Considering the current price of rice relative to other crops, we will likely see that number increase, with Arkansas farmers potentially seeding over 1.5 million acres. A lot will, of course, depend on the weather, and the current forecast is for a warm, wet spring. Currently, Arkansas farmers have barely gotten started, with only 8% of the crop seeded, compared with 17% a year ago and a 5-year average of 28%. The latest supply/demand report showed an expected reduction in imports due to curtailed restaurant use, and projected ending stocks to be down 34% from last year. The all-rice season-average farm price was raised 20 cents to $13.20.

Cotton
Renewed selling has hit cotton futures, resulting in new 11-year lows. USDA has estimated 2020 planting intentions virtually unchanged from 2019 at 13.5 million acres of upland cotton (590,000 in Arkansas) and 228,000 acres of ELS. In February, the National Cotton Council survey indicated producers intended to plant 12.8 million acres of upland cotton, and 224,000 acres of ELS. With current price levels, one would assume that the NCC estimate is closer to correct, and that it is highly likely actual planted acres will be below the estimates of both surveys. Crude oil is trading at an 18-year low at this point, meaning that synthetics will remain a very cheap option for clothing manufacturers and will continue to pressure cotton prices. Shelter in place orders have resulted in mill closures around the world, and orders for U.S. cotton yarn and fabric have declined 90%. July is testing resistance at 54.50 cents, while December needs to move above 56 cents to suggest further gains are possible.