Cattle
The July USDA Cattle Inventory report showed some herd liquidation, with the beef cow inventory pegged at 99.3% of last year’s total, surprising many in the industry who were expecting a lower total based upon June’s slaughter totals. Beef exports last week hit a marketing-year high of 29,500 metric tons, up 89% from last week and 81% from the four-week average. Japan and South Korea were major buyers. The weaker dollar is supportive. October live cattle futures are trading at 4-month highs, but have so far been capped by resistance at $107. October feeders are chopping along below resistance near $145, but are still trending higher.

Hogs
Hog futures continue to struggle to build upward momentum. October was attempting to build support at $49, but prices have now moved back below that level, leaving the contract low of $46.47 as the only level of support. Resistance will be found at $52 on a rebound. Weaker cash hog prices and pork cutout values have added to the negative undertone this week.

Corn
Corn futures have fallen to new lows this week as the realty of the potential size of the crop becomes the focus of traders. The USDA crop condition ratings held steady this week, with 72% of the crop rated good to excellent, and private yield forecasts are coming in high. Much needed rain is in the forecast for parts of Iowa, adding pressure. Futures charts look dismal, with new lows being set for both September and December. September looks headed for a retest of the 2006 low of $3.00 ¼ on the weekly continuation chart. December will likely head toward the $3.00 level as well after taking out previous support at $3.22.

Soybeans
Soybean futures have been on a wild ride the past few weeks. A weaker dollar has facilitated strong sales, and that has provided some underlying support for futures. A slight improvement in the condition ratings to 73% in good to excellent condition was bearish for prices this week. Adding to the negative undertone are private estimates for a new record yield, increasing the size of the crop.  In recent days, November has tested the waters above resistance at $9, but a failure to close above that level has resulted in renewed weakness. Major support at $8.60 could be retested in short order.

Cotton
The cotton market has been making a slow and steady recovery since the pandemic decimated demand for cotton. December charted a bullish key reversal on Thursday of last week and has built on that positive chart signal this week. Resistance is at the recent high of 64.90 cents, which is the next upside target. Deteriorating crop conditions are adding support, with USDA now rating only 45% of the crop nationwide in good to excellent condition. In Arkansas, 88% of the crop is rated good to excellent. Weak demand worldwide will likely limit the upside potential for cotton.

Rice
Rice futures have this week resumed their wild swings and wide trading ranges. Futures sold off hard last week, with September setting a new contract low of $11.21 ½ in the process. On Thursday, however, prices soared to retest resistance at $11.90 (which has capped the market for a couple of weeks now) before backing off to close near the middle of the day’s trading range. Futures charted a bearish reversal on Tuesday, suggesting the market could retest the contract low of $11.21 ½ on follow through selling.