Today, the USDA released their Annual Crop Production Report, their Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and the monthly supply/demand reports.
The 2019 corn crop was estimated at 13.7 billion bushels, down 5% from the 2018 crop estimate, even though harvested acres were up less than 1%. The decrease comes from a significant drop in yields thanks to adverse weather conditions throughout the 2019 growing season. The average yield in the U.S. was pegged at 168 bushels per acre, down 8.4 bushels from 2018. Corn stocks in all positions on December 1 totaled 11.4 billion bushels, down 5% from the same date in 2018. The Supply/Demand report raised total corn useage to 14.07 billion bushels, and left the season-average on farm price unchanged at $3.85.
U.S. soybean production was down 20% from 2018, totaling 3/56 billion bushels. The average yield per acre was pegged at 47.4 bushels per acre, down 3.2 bushels from 2018. Harvested acres were down 14%. Arkansas’ average yield was pegged at 49 bushels per acre, lower than the previous two years. Positive movement was noted on the stocks front, with beans stored in all positions on December 1 down 13% from a year ago. Total stocks totaled 3.25 billion bushels, and the most recent quarter showed disappearance up 8% from the same period in 2018. The supply/demand report pegged the average on farm price at $9.00 per bushel, up 15 cents, reflecting stronger soybean oil prices.
2019 rice production in the U.S. totaled 185 million cwt, down 17% from the previous year. Planted acres were down 14%, and the average yield was pegged at 7,471 lbs. per acre, down 221 lbs. from the 2018 crop. Arkansas’ average yield was pegged at 7,480 lbs. per acre, down only 40 lbs. per acre from 2018. The monthly supply/demand report had good news for prices, showing lower supplies, increased use and declining ending stocks. The all rice season-average farm price was raised 20 cents to $13.20 per cwt.
Cotton production was pegged at 20.1 million bales, up 9% from 2018. Acreage was up 16% at 11.8 million acres, but yield down 47 pounds per acre at 817 pounds. The supply/demand report included the lower production total, down 100,000 bales from the previous estimate, which carried over into ending stocks, which were pegged at 5.4 million bales. The season-average price is now estimated to be 63 cents per pound, up 2 cents from the previous estimate.
Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were lowered from the December estimate on slower expected growth in milk per cow. The all milk price was lowered for 2020, and is now pegged at $19.25 per cwt.