Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
In the USDA Supply/Demand report for October, the forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production was increased from last month. Beef production was raised on higher expected cattle slaughter. Pork production was reduced on lower slaughter totals and lighter carcass weights. Broiler, turkey, and egg production were all increased in the report as well.  Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2020 were raised on current price strength and robust beef demand. The 2020 broiler price forecast is unchanged from last month, while the turkey and egg forecasts were raised on current price strength.

The milk production forecast for 2020 was raised on higher cow numbers and a more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. The all milk price forecast was raised to $18/cwt. For 2021, a larger dairy herd and higher milk per cow are expected to support higher milk production from last month. The all milk price forecast is raised to $17.60/cwt for 2021.

Rice
Rice futures plummeted last Friday as USDA delivered bearish news in the form of the October WASDE and production reports. Supplies were raised as NASS increased the all-rice production forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 226.3 million cwt, on higher harvested area and yields. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,567 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds from the previous forecast. Higher imports, which were increased to 37.3 million cwt, added to the total supply. Projected ending stocks for 20/21 were raised 1.8 million cwt to 47.7 million, up 66% from last year. The projected 20/21 season-average all rice farm price was raised $0.20 to $12.80. The extreme weakness seen Friday was short-lived, with prices hitting $11.85 before closing in the top third of the day’s trading range. Futures have since held above support around $12.20. The high of $12.76 set the previous Monday will likely be tough to overcome. As of Sunday, the crop was 83% harvested nationwide compared with 5-year average of 87%. Arkansas was at 83% harvested compared with 5-year average of 92%.

Cotton
December cotton continues to trend higher, setting a new 10-month high early this week. Crop damage from Hurricane Delta has unfortunately been a major bullish factor supporting the market. As of Sunday, 26% of the crop nationwide had been harvested, but virtually all of the crop was open bolls. Arkansas made significant progress last week. 30% of the crop is now harvested, compared with 13% the previous week. The Texas crop was safe from Delta, but is facing abandonment in West Texas due to dryness. The October production and WASDE reports showed slightly lower production, and unchanged mill use, exports and ending stocks. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks for 20/21 are projected at 42% of use.