Rice
Despite recent flooding, rice farmers are making better-than-average progress getting the crop in the ground. USDA says that as off April 13, 24% of the rice crop has been planted. That’s down from 41% in 2024, but up compared with the five-year average of 20%. The April WASDE for rice provided a bit of bullish news, reduced imports and increased domestic use. That was partially offset by a 1.5 million cwt decrease in exports, resulting in a decrease of 2.5 million cwt in the ending stocks estimate. Ending stocks are pegged at 44.5 million cwt, up from 39.8 million for 2023/24. The average on-farm expected price was unchanged at $14.20 for long grain. May futures have established support at $13, but have been unable to build upward momentum to challenge resistance at $14.

Corn
The April 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook calls for higher exports, reduced feed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Feed and residual use is cut 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on Q2 disappearance data, while exports are raised 100 million bushels amid strong sales and competitive U.S. pricing. Ending stocks are now projected at 1.5 billion bushels, down 75 million from last month. The season-average farm price remains at $4.35 per bushel. Despite tariff escalations with China, the corn market has shown resilience due to lower export dependence. A 90-day pause on new tariffs helped ease pressure, supporting a rebound in prices. However, the recent rally has pushed futures into overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term correction. Improved planting weather may weigh on prices as traders factor in stronger crop progress ahead.

Soybeans
The 2024/25 U.S. soybean outlook includes higher imports and crush, along with slightly lower ending stocks. Crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2.42 billion on stronger domestic soybean meal use and higher soybean oil exports. Soybean oil for biofuel is lowered based on use to date, but demand is expected to strengthen later in the year due to tariffs on competing biofuel feedstocks like used cooking oil. Imports are slightly higher, exports are unchanged, and ending stocks are reduced by 5 million bushels to 375 million. The season-average soybean price is steady at $9.95 per bushel. New crop soybean prices are approaching overbought and due for a slight correction, but look for good support to emerge at the 100-day moving average of $10.22.

Wheat
The April outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat shows larger supplies, slightly lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Imports are raised 10 million bushels to 150 million — the highest since 2017/18 — boosting total supply. Domestic use is down 2 million bushels on reduced seed demand, while exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. Ending stocks are projected at 846 million bushels, up 22% year-over-year. The season-average farm price remains at $5.50 per bushel. Futures markets remain under pressure, led by Kansas City wheat, despite weather-driven support. July wheat climbed above $5.50 but met resistance near $5.70, signaling a key technical ceiling. Forecasted rains across major growing areas may improve crop conditions and weigh on prices. In Arkansas, winter wheat remains strong, with 50% rated good to excellent and no acreage rated very poor.

Cotton
Cotton futures were trending higher until April 3, or “Liberation Day,” when Presiden Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on products from around the world. Cotton futures gapped lower two days in a row. Old-crop May fell all the way to 61 cents, while new crop December found support at 64 cents. The market has rebounded a bit as tariffs on countries like Vietnam (a major purchaser of U.S. cotton) were paused, but the deteriorating relationship with China will limit any rebound potential. Lower crude oil prices are also a factor, as it creates additional competition from cheap synthetics. The April WASDE report showed few changes, with a 100,000 bale reduction in the export projection and an equal increase in ending stocks, resulting in an ending stocks estimate of 5 million bales for 2024/25.

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
In the April WASDE, total red meat and poultry production estimates for 2025 were lowered. The beef production estimate was raised on heavier weights and higher slaughter totals, though it was more than offset by lower pork and broiler production. The milk production forecast for 2025 was raised on larger cow inventories and higher milk per cow. The expected all milk price was projected lower at $21.10/cwt.