Rice
Rice futures have seen significant weakness this week, with the May contract plummeting to a new 5-year low on a front month basis. Subsequent trading days have seen the market trade in a relatively narrow range inside Monday’s range for old crop contracts. Support is now at $11.91 for May and $12.25 for July. September, however, has continued to see weakness, with support at Tuesday’s low of $12.78.
USDA says that as of April 27, Arkansas farmers have planted 68% of the rice crop. That’s down from 81% in 2024, but well ahead of the 5-year average of 50%. With portions of Northeast Arkansas still flooded, it is beginning to look unlikely that farmers will be able to seed the 1.461 million acres reported in the prospective plantings report. The crop insurance final planting date is May 25 and the late planting date is June 9, so time is running short.

Corn
September corn futures have continued to slide lower, driven largely by favorable planting progress and improving weather across the Corn Belt. As of April 28, USDA reports 24% of the U.S. corn crop is planted — up 12% from the previous week and 2% ahead of the five-year average. The 6-to-14 day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures and drier conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt, which should further accelerate fieldwork. Technically, corn has broken through support at $4.40, with the next support level likely near $4.30. Market participants remain focused on planting pace, shifting weather, and upcoming crop condition reports.

Soybeans
November soybean futures have been rangebound between $10.40 and $10.20, possibly signaling a period of consolidation before a potential breakout. Planting is ahead of schedule, with 18% of the crop in the ground—up 10% from the prior week and 6% above the five-year average. Like corn, soybeans are benefiting from favorable weather. On the trade front, the U.S. and China have made minor tariff concessions on select goods, offering some optimism. However, no formal agreement has been reached, keeping markets cautious. A breakout from the current range will likely depend on planting progress, trade developments, and updated weather trends.

Wheat
July wheat futures in both Kansas City and Chicago have dropped to new contract lows, with $5.23 now acting as key support. A break below that level could push prices toward $5.00—a level not seen since early COVID-19 disruptions. The recent selloff is tied to improved crop conditions following widespread rains in the Southern Plains, with more moisture in the forecast. While prices have declined, this has made U.S. wheat more competitive in export markets, particularly for soft red and hard red winter wheat. As of April 27, USDA reports 49% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, matching last year. In Arkansas, 46% is rated good to excellent, with just 12% rated poor or very poor. Ongoing volatility is expected as markets weigh improved conditions against global demand.

Cotton
Cotton futures prices have improved significantly in the past two weeks. The July contract, currently the most active, made a new two-month last week. However, this week has seen renewed weakness as the market focuses on the longer-term impact of a trade war with China, and the possibility of additional trade disputes with other major cotton buyers like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Export demand remains disappointing, and lower crude oil prices mean synthetics provide cheaper competition. Recent data shows weakening consumer confidence, which could mean demand for clothing will decline. From a technical perspective, new crop December has established support at the recent low of 64.24 cents. The market failed at resistance of 70.75 cents.

Cattle
After a brief decline, cattle futures have begun to move higher again, continuing their run of new contract and all-time highs late last week. The October contract traded as high as $204.24 early this week. Cash trade is slow to develop, however, and packer margins are now more than $100 per head in the red. Recent consumer confidence data and inflation could impact demand, and exports to China have slowed significantly due to the trade war over tariffs. The market is technically overbought, and given the fundamental situation, a correction could be dramatic.

Hogs
Hog futures continue to trend higher. Tight stocks, as reported in last week’s Cold Storage Report, continue to provide support. March stocks were down 8.8% from the previous year, indicating demand remains strong. However, exports are slow and China is cancelling orders. The market is technically overbought, so a correction could come at any time. Support begins at $88 for June.