Corn
This month’s WASDE report projected higher U.S. corn production as yield estimates received a sizable bump, keeping September and December futures under pressure. Both contracts are holding just above key support levels at $3.80 and $4.00, respectively. To spark upward momentum, prices would need to close above their 20-day moving averages, $3.85 for September and $4.07 for December. Crop condition ratings remain historically strong, with 71% of the crop rated good to excellent, the best in 9 years. Harvest activity is also expanding across the southern Corn Belt, adding pressure to the market. Louisiana’s harvest is 61% complete, Mississippi 31%, Georgia 30% and Arkansas 17%. Collectively, these four states are expected to produce 160 million more bushels of corn than last year, according to USDA.

Soybeans
November soybeans received a boost from this month’s WASDE report, filling the early-July chart gap and regaining the $10.00 level before meeting resistance near $10.40. Current price action suggests consolidation as traders wait for news of potential Chinese buying. For now, China continues to source South American soybeans at roughly a $1.00 premium to U.S. prices, slowing U.S. export demand during what is typically a key buying period. Monday’s crop progress report showed the national soybean condition rating steady at 68% good to excellent, the highest rating since 2020 and well above the five-year average.

Wheat
Wheat futures across all three exchanges have slipped to new lows, with Chicago and Kansas City breaking below $5.00 and Minneapolis also posting fresh contract lows before recovering slightly. While futures have staged a corrective bounce, technicals remain bearish with prices still hovering near five-year lows. A move above the 10-day moving average could spark some fund short covering, but rallies are likely to be seen as selling opportunities. Ongoing pressure comes from stiff global export competition and fresh supplies entering the market from the U.S. winter wheat harvest in the Plains. However, the 2025/26 marketing year has begun with strong export demand, and U.S. wheat values remain competitive globally, factors that could help stabilize futures in the weeks ahead.

Rice
Rice futures posted a bearish outside day in reaction to the August Crop Production Report. The market was expecting further cuts to acreage and production, with many believing the estimate of 1.229 million acres in Arkansas is too high. However, Arkansas acres were unchanged in the report and the U.S. saw  an increase of 110,000 acres planted and an 80,000 acre increase in harvested acres. Production was increased by 3.5 million hundredweight to 208.50 million and beginning stocks were increased to 50.5 million hundredweight. Increases in domestic use and export projections offset the increase in production, and the ending stocks were pegged at 44.6 million cwt, down 100,000 cwt from the July report. The projected average long grain price was unchanged at $13. In Arkansas, 94% of the rice is heading and 4% has been harvested already. 69% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from 73% just a week earlier. Technically, the September contract has resistance at the spike high of $13.33, with support at the contract low of $12.15.

Cotton
December cotton futures posted a new three-week high in reaction to the August Crop Production Report but quickly retraced those gains after finding resistance at 68.5 cents in most active December. In the report, USDA lowered planted acres to 9.28 million, and harvested acres to 7.36 million, down from 10.12 million and 8.66 million respectively in the June 30 report. Despite a 53 lb. per acre increase in expected yield, the size of the crop was cut by 1.39 million bales, resulting in a projection of 13.21 million bales. Projected ending stocks were cut by one million bales, and the expected average on-farm price was 64 cents per pound. December has additional resistance at 69 cents, and support beginning at 66 cents. 

Livestock and Poultry
In the August Supply and Demand Report, USDA reduced the forecast for red meat and poultry production for 2025. Beef, pork and turkey production were all reduced, while broiler production was raised reflecting recent production and hatchery data. Beef import projections were also lowered due to higher tariff rates and slower shipments. Cattle price forecasts for 2025 were again raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent strength and relatively strong demand for beef. Hog price forecasts were raised on recent prices and tightening supplies. Broiler prices are expected to decline during the last half of the year, but exports are expected to increase.