Rice
In a surprising move, USDA aggressively cut the rice production estimate in the WASDE report, without waiting for the June acreage report. Due to excessive rains throughout the Delta, the acreage forecast was reduced to 2.83 million acres planted acres, down 70,000 acres from the May report and the March Prospective Plantings report. With 2.77 million acres projected to be harvested at a yield of 7,746 lbs/ac, the total crop is pegged at 214.4 million cwt. The reduction was partially offset by a reduction in domestic and residual use and a 1 million cwt increase in the import projection. The net result of the WASDE report was a reduction in ending stocks to 46.6 million cwt for 2025/26. The average on-farm price is projected to be $13.50 for all rice and $12.50 for long-grain. The crop condition has also suffered from the weather, with only 71% of the Arkansas crop in good to excellent condition. Futures markets, which have been trending higher since May, turned sharply lower last week despite the bullish numbers in the report. September has support near $13.40.

Corn
Bearish sentiment remains in control of the corn market. Neither a lower crop condition rating nor a sizable flash sale to Mexico earlier this week was enough to halt the selling pressure. Much of the market’s attention has shifted to next week’s USDA acreage report, where expectations are leaning toward an increase in planted corn acres — adding to concerns over potential supply. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed a 2-point decline in national corn conditions, now rated 70% good to excellent. While the drop raised eyebrows, that rating still suggests strong yield potential, especially with forecasts calling for mostly favorable weather. As long as conditions stay benign, traders appear reluctant to price in much production risk. From a technical perspective, December corn futures are nearing key support at the contract low of $4.28. A break below that level could open the door to the low $4.20s. Resistance is seen between $4.40 and $4.45, but a move back above $4.35 would be the first step in challenging the downtrend.

Soybeans
Soybean futures remain under pressure, weighed down by profit-taking and a sharp reversal in crude oil that spilled over into the soybean oil market. With no fresh bullish news, momentum has faded across the complex. Crop conditions held steady this week, with 66% of the U.S. soybean crop rated good to excellent — just one point behind last year. Planting is nearly complete at 96%, and while most key areas are now within the late insurance planting window, Kansas and Kentucky could see additional acres planted through June 30. From a technical standpoint, November soybean futures dipped back below the 20-day moving average near $10.40. The 50-day moving average near $10.36 remains a key support level that has held since mid-April.

Wheat
Winter wheat harvest advanced 9 points this week to 19% complete but remains well behind the five-year average of 28%. At the same time, national wheat conditions declined 3 points to 49% good to excellent. Despite the slower harvest and lower ratings, traders largely shrugged off the data, anticipating dry windows ahead to help harvest catch up. Yield potential is still seen as stable for now. On the technicals, both July Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures fell below their 100-day and 50-day moving averages on back-to-back sessions. Support now comes in at $5.18 for KC wheat and $4.22 for Chicago.

Cotton
In the June WASDE, USDA lowered the harvested acreage estimate by 2% to 8.19 million acres. The national average yield was reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 lbs/acre. This is all due to excessive moisture throughout the Delta, including Arkansas. This cut the production estimate by 500,000 bales to 14 million. In addition to the cut in production, beginning stocks were reduced by 400,000 bales due to an increase in exports for 2024/25. This resulted in a 900,000 bale reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales. The season-average on-farm price, however, was unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound. 64% of the Arkansas crop is in good to excellent condition according to USDA, and only 21% of the crop is squaring, compared with a 5-year average of 40%. Futures prices continue to consolidate in a mostly sideways pattern with December holding between support at 66.50 cents and resistance at 69 cents. The market has rallied in recent days, led by July, but December will need to close above that resistance at 69 cents to escape the consolidation pattern

Livestock and Poultry
The June WASDE lowered the U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025. The beef production forecast, however, was the only one to decline thanks to reduced slaughter totals. Pork production was unchanged and broiler production was increased on recent production and hatchery data. The egg production forecast was lowered due to the recent discovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in commercial laying flocks. Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts were raised on current price strength and strong demand.