Rice
On May 25, the final planting date for crop insurance in Arkansas, farmers had reportedly planted 94% of intended acres. With the final plant date of June 9 fast approaching and lots of precipitation over the holiday weekend, farmers are making tough decisions about how to proceed. Of the rice planted, 87% has emerged and only 66% is in good to excellent condition, evidence that the current weather pattern has been detrimental to the start of the crop. Fertilizer prices are trending higher, with urea prices estimated to be up 13% since April. UAN28 and UAN32 were up 9% and 10% respectively, and DAP, MAP and potash are all up slightly. July futures have support at $12.25−a 5-year low on a front-month basis. A close above resistance at $13.50 could signal a retest of the $14 area.

Corn
The latest USDA Crop Progress report shows corn planting progressing steadily, with 87% of the crop planted nationwide — up from 81% at this time last year and ahead of the five-year average of 85%. While planting pace has been strong, early crop condition ratings are raising concern. U.S. corn is currently rated at 68% good to excellent, trailing the average of 72% for this time of year. Some key states are struggling — Ohio, Texas, and North Dakota are each reporting less than 50% good/excellent ratings, well below their typical 70% range. Arkansas is reporting its corn crop at 68% good/excellent, down slightly from 72% last year. Despite these weaker conditions, the market reaction has been muted. USDA’s projection of increased corn acreage this year continues to weigh on sentiment, with expectations of larger supplies and higher ending stocks. The September corn contract is finding support at the recent low of $4.20, with resistance near $4.43.

Soybeans
Soybean planting is moving quickly this year, with 76% of the U.S. crop planted — well ahead of last year’s pace by 10 percentage points and 12 points above the five-year average. In Arkansas, planting progress is slightly behind last year at 80% versus 87%, but still ahead of the state’s five-year average of 76%. USDA has not yet issued national soybean condition ratings for 2025; the first report is expected in early June. In the meantime, Arkansas is reporting 61% of its soybean crop in good to excellent condition, down from 74% at this time last year. With little fresh data on crop quality, markets remain subdued. November soybean futures continue to struggle for traction, unable to hold above $10.60, and may stay rangebound until more condition reports are available.

Wheat
U.S. winter wheat conditions are currently rated at 50% good to excellent, slightly better than last year’s 48% but still lackluster overall. Condition ratings this year are broadly similar to 2024 across all categories. In Arkansas, 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent, with only 9% in very poor or poor shape. That’s down from 65% good/excellent at this time last year. On the technical analysis, the Chicago July wheat contract broke its stair step pattern last week but has yet to show a definitive breakout. Traders remain cautious as the market awaits further clarity on harvest potential.

Cotton
With the final planting date for cotton in the rearview, Arkansas farmers have seeded 74% of the cotton crop, down from a 5-year average of 81%. Farmers in Northeast Arkansas have until the late planting date of June 4, while southern Arkansas farmers have until June 9 to plant cotton. Concern about the size of the U.S. crop has been somewhat supportive to the futures market, though rains that have prevented mid-south farmers to planting could prove beneficial in West Texas and result in additional acres there. December needs to close above resistance at 69 cents to suggest additional upside is possible. Weak demand continues to dominate the conversation in the cotton market. Weekly exports have repeatedly been disappointing, although last week’s total was up 41% from the previous four-week average. Vietnam has been the top buyer, while China has been in the market to a much lighter degree.

Cattle
Both live and feeder cattle futures hare facing significant technical pressure after charting bearish key reversals last week and a bearish outside day on Tuesday. While we haven’t seen a lot of follow-through selling, August futures need to close above the high of $214.50 to negate the negative chart signal. The monthly cattle on feed report pegged the total feedlot inventory as down 2% from May 2024, while placements were down 3%.